This matchup promises to be exciting as it features one of the best rivalries in the AFC. How to watch the AFC Divisional Round game between the Bills vs Chiefs: Schedule, TV, live stream, important matchups, and prediction.
The Buffalo Bills vs Chiefs and Kansas City Chiefs will square off in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons in the divisional round weekend’s last game.
The Chiefs are traveling for a postseason game for the first time under Patrick Mahomes, therefore this will be the first time that game is played in Buffalo. Earlier in the season, the Bills vs Chiefs traveled to Kansas City and defeated the Chiefs, beginning a winning run that has now lasted six games.
A ticket to the conference final is at stake when these rivals square off once more. Which of these teams will play in the AFC Championship Game, then? We’ll quickly learn the truth. Here’s a look at how to watch the game before we analyze the matchup.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 21 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
TV: CBS | Streaming: Paramount+
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bills -2.5, O/U 45.5 ( via Sportsline consensus odds)
When it’s ball time for the Chiefs
Last week, the Chiefs finally had a successful offensive performance against the Dolphins. They gained 409 yards against Miami, which is a record high since Week 7. Of their nine non-clock-killing drives, they gained more than 60 yards on four of them and scored on six of them. Thus, they won the game really easily despite just going 2 for 6 in the red zone. Furthermore, that came up against a Miami defense that had been doing admirably in the latter part of the season.
In a similar vein, the Bills vs Chiefs’ defense has performed admirably in the second half of the season following a slump during the midpoint due to a plethora of injuries.
The Dolphins’ inability to put any pressure on quarterback Patrick Mahomes stemming from the injuries that sidelined their top three edge rushers—Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, and Andrew Van Ginkel—makes the Miami defense, which Kansas City maneuvered the ball on with relative ease last week, different from the Buffalo defense it will face this week.
According to Tru Media, Mahomes saw his sixth-lowest pressure rate of the season while holding the ball for an average of 3.13 seconds before throwing it. That may not seem like much, but considering the thin margins between a sack and a completed pass, it is roughly three-tenths of a second longer than the league average.
The most crucial aspect in deciding the result of this game will probably be how well the Kansas City offensive line does against the pass-rushing corps up front, which includes Von Miller, Leonard Floyd, and Greg Rousseau. Buffalo’s pass-catchers were so inconsistent that Mahomes had his worst pressure-related performance of his career, going just 91 of 185 for 1,132 yards, five touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Buffalo concluded the season ranked tenth in terms of pressure rate.
His career low of 6.1 yards per attempt, career lows for touchdown and interception rates, career lows for explosive play rate, and second-highest rate of sacks taken while under duress were all present.
The Chiefs have some advantages over the middle of the field, where Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce do most of their work if Mahomes gets time to throw. The middle of the Bills vs Chiefs’ defense, particularly at linebacker, is severely injured. Since they frequently use zone coverage, the middle of the field is typically covered by those guys and their safety.
The Bills vs Chiefs were second in FTN’s DVOA against passes to the middle during the regular season, but things will change in the middle of the defense with linebacker Terrel Bernard and slot corner Taron Johnson both questionable (the former having not practiced all week), safety Taylor Rapp sidelined, and outside corner Christian Benford out.
Buffalo’s run defense this season was merely mediocre, ranking 17th in the league in terms of yards after contact allowed per attempt, 31st in terms of DVOA, 23rd in terms of explosive run rate, and 26th in terms of the percentage of rushes that resulted in five yards or more. Reintroducing DaQuan Jones to the middle of the defense helps on both fronts, particularly when facing a club like Kansas City, whose offensive line is strong up the middle.
Isiah Pacheco did not participate in the Chiefs’ loss to the Buffalo Bills vs Chiefs, as Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon combined for just 58 yards on 15 attempts. Pacheco averaged more than 3 yards per carry after contact this season. Griezmann shines as Atletico Madrid gets its Copa del Rey back after losing to Real Madrid
When it’s ball time for the Bills vs Chiefs
The matchup on this side is very different from previous sides. In addition to having a very different offense (more run-heavy, fewer focused targets) than the Bills vs Chiefs, the Chiefs currently field one of the top defenses in the NFL, as opposed to the same group that has won shootouts versus Buffalo in the past.
One thing remains constant, though, and that is Josh Allen’s ability to perform his Superman routine and avoid backbreaking interceptions will probably be the determining factor in the Bills vs Chiefs’ level of success.
Kansas City finished seventh in FTN’s pass-defensive DVOA this season, demonstrating how effective their pass coverage was. According to Tru Media, the opposition had the lowest explosive pass rate in the league and the fifth-lowest EPA/dropback on average. In the meantime, Kansas City was put under pressure on 39.2% of dropbacks, ranking eighth in the NFL, and was sack-first on 9.3% of them.
The Chiefs employed man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL and deployed blitzes more frequently than all but four other teams. These two factors could operate in Allen’s favor or against him. Allen possesses both the necessary arm power to put the ball into any window and the size and tenacity to hold off on getting rid of it until the very last moment provided Stefon Diggs, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid can move quickly on their routes. After the catch, there should be plenty of opportunities for yards if they can make the catch while moving. Everything to Know About the Ravens vs. Texans Match
Additionally, there should be space for Allen to make plays with his legs as a runner or on scramble-drill passes if he can avoid the rush, as we have witnessed him do so many times in the past.
However, Buffalo’s offense would undoubtedly face serious difficulties if L’Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie, and the linebackers from Kansas City could stay close to those receivers. Additionally, if the pass rush can preserve rush-lane integrity and box Allen into the pocket until it collapses on him. (It will also be intriguing to watch if the Chiefs are comfortable matching up with any defensive back, or if Sneed shadows Diggs.)
Similar to the other side of the ball, one of the biggest factors here will be how well Allen’s offensive line can hold up, especially on the interior against Chris Jones, and if he can make throws in rhythm or has to freestyle all night. The high school coach of Deebo Samuel explains the superstar’s path to fame.
The Bills vs Chiefs have been a little run-heavy this year compared to previous years, as was already observed. Of course, Allen is one of the most distinctive rushers to ever play quarterback, but James Cook is also a potent danger out of the backfield. The Bills vs Chiefs have a history of using Allen as a runner, especially in the playoffs and against the Chiefs. They have a great chance to do it again in this game, especially when it comes to short yardage.
The Bills vs Chiefs should attempt to use every tool at their disposal to gain an edge, and one of the most potent ones is Allen’s ability to turn difficult yards into big gains with his legs.
Forecast
Buffalo will host this game at home after defeating Kansas City earlier in the season. Those are advantages, but given the condition of the team’s injured defense, I think the Chiefs can move the ball more successfully than they did in the last game. Until someone beats Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in a close playoff game, I’ll always give the field to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.